<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><xml><records><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Shrub encroachment shifts the bioclimatic limit between marcescent and sclerophyllous oaks along an elevation gradient in west-central Spain</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Journal of Vegetation Science</style></secondary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2014</style></year></dates><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">25</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">514-524</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Questions (1) Does shrub encroachment affect the regeneration of two contrasting species of oak along an elevation gradient in the west-central Iberian Peninsula? (2) Do different nurse shrubs have any relevant species-specific effects along the gradient? (3) Does shrub encroachment affect the location of the bioclimatic limit between these two oak species along the elevation gradient? Location Twelve sites distributed from the Arribes del Duero plains to the Sistema Central mountains (Salamanca province, Spain). Methods We measured the regeneration of two contrasting oak tree species (Quercus ilex subsp. ballota Samp - sclerophyllous, Q.pyrenaica Willd - marcescent) as the relative percentage cover of seedlings and saplings (&lt;1.3-m high) in plots 10m in diameter distributed in stands of different age. We fixed the bioclimatic limit at 50% relative proportion of species in each plot, i.e. whether one species was more abundant than the other in a plot. Shrub stand age was estimated by counting growth rings in the principal stems of the oldest shrubs in a plot. We fitted generalized linear mixed models to analyse the effects of elevation, specific nurse shrub and shrub stand age on regeneration and the probability of one species being more abundant than the other. Results The regeneration and relative proportion of Q.ilex (sclerophyllous) decreased with elevation. Regeneration did not vary with shrub encroachment, although the relative proportion increased notably in the youngest stands. In turn, regeneration and relative proportion of Q.pyrenaica (deciduous) significantly increased towards the upper sites and mature shrub stands. We found no evidence of specific nurse shrub effects on regeneration or the probability of one species being more abundant than the other in either of the two species of oak. Conclusions The bioclimatic limit between the two contrasting species of oak shifted with shrub stand age along the elevation gradient. Land practices preventing shrub encroachment can thus indirectly shift this limit towards higher elevations. The effects of shrubs may be critical in resolving the climatic and land-use effects on elevation shifts of species under changing conditions in bioclimatic transitions.</style></abstract></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">GARCÍA-VALDÉS, Raúl</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Zavala, Miguel A.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Araújo, Miguel B.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Purves, Drew W.</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Chasing a moving target: projecting climate change-induced shifts in non-equilibrial tree species distributions</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Journal of Ecology</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Bayesian statistics</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Iberian forests</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">local colonization and extinction rates</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">MCMC</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">metapopulation model</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">plant population and community dynamics</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">plant–climate interactions</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">seed dispersal</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">species distribution models</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">stochastic patch occupancy models</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2013</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2013///</style></date></pub-dates></dates><urls><web-urls><url><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1365-2745.12049</style></url></web-urls></urls><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">n/a - n/a</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">* The geographic distributions of plant species show marked correlations with the current climate, suggesting that they are likely to shift if climate changes. However, before projecting any such shifts, it is important to establish whether distributions are at equilibrium with the current climate. If they are not, distributional shifts could occur even without climate change, making it difficult to tease apart climate-induced shifts from shifts occurring naturally without climate change. * We forecast the geographical distributions of the 10 most common trees occurring in the Iberian Peninsula using a new method that relaxes the species–climate equilibrium assumption implicit in most species distributions models. For each species, we developed a spatially explicit patch occupancy model (SPOM) with climate-dependent extinction rates and with colonization rates that depend on both climate and local seed dispersal. Bayesian methods were used to estimate the colonization, extinction and seed dispersal functions against observed colonization and extinction events recorded in repeat surveys of 46 596 forest plots in the Spanish Forest Inventories (1986–96 and 1997–2007). We then simulated distributional changes between the years 2000–2100. * Without climate change, 9 of the 10 species substantially increased in regional frequency. These increases occurred primarily within current ranges, although some species also expanded across their range edges. With climate change, one temperate conifer species and two sub-Mediterranean species would reduce their frequency of occurrence across the studied region, whereas temperate broad-leaved species were unaffected and Mediterranean species were either unaffected or increased their frequency of occurrence. * Synthesis. The analysis suggests that these species are substantially out of equilibrium, such that abundances and ranges would increase without climate change. Climate change may increase, decrease, stabilize or shift distributions, in a way that can only be understood by comparing predictions against baseline scenarios that account for these non-equilibrium range dynamics.</style></abstract></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Benito-Garzón, Marta</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Ruíz-Benito, PALOMA</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Zavala, Miguel A.</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Interspecific differences in tree growth and mortality responses to environmental drivers determine potential species distributional limits in Iberian forests</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Global Ecology and Biogeography</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">climate change</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">demographic rates</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">national forest inventory</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">phenotypic variability</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Spain</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">species distributional models</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">tree growth</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">tree mortality</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2013</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2013///</style></date></pub-dates></dates><urls><web-urls><url><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/geb.12075</style></url></web-urls></urls><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">n/a - n/a</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Aim Tree growth may be enhanced by carbon dioxide fertilization unless drought stress becomes too severe, yet the likely increase in tree growth under a warmer climate is still controversial. Tree mortality has increased in some regions, but its multifactorial nature makes the prediction of likely global trends difficult. The aims of this work are: (1) to assess which abiotic, structural and competition factors influence tree growth and tree mortality in mainland Spain, and (2) to evaluate whether these processes would drive species distributions and would improve current niche model predictions. Location Continental Spain. Methods We projected species distributional models by integrating nonparametric tree growth and tree mortality models based on repeated surveys of diameter at breast height and mortality for 40,721 trees distributed in 45,301 plots, which include the 11 most common canopy tree species in continental Spain, as measured in the second and third National Forest Inventories, with a mean lag time of 11 years. Results Tree growth and tree mortality were explained by an assemblage of many factors, among which climate and competition played a key role. The accuracy of models including tree growth and tree mortality in predicting tree habitat suitability was comparable to classical niche models based on species occurrence. Projections under climate change showed for 9 out of 11 species, a likely increase in tree growth that would be counteracted by an increase in tree mortality, suggesting that even if growth rates increase, mortality would limit the species ranges under global warming expectations. Main conclusions Growth and mortality are major determinants of species distributions. Under future climate change expectations, our model suggests that growth may increase for some Iberian species, but even in this case, species ranges at the rear edge would be limited by an increase in mortality rates.</style></abstract></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Architecture of Iberian canopy tree species in relation to wood density, shade tolerance and climate</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Plant Ecology</style></secondary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2012</style></year></dates><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">213</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">707-722</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Tree architecture has important consequences for tree performance as it determines resource capture, mechanical stability and dominance over competitors. We analyzed architectural relationships between stem and crown dimensions for 13 dominant Iberian canopy tree species belonging to the Pinaceae (six Pinus species) and Fagaceae (six Quercus species and Fagus sylvatica) and related these architectural traits to wood density, shade tolerance and climatic factors. Fagaceae had, compared with Pinaceae, denser wood, saplings with wider crowns and adults with larger maximal crown size but smaller maximal height. In combination, these traits enhance light acquisition and persistence in shaded environments; thus, contributing to their shade tolerance. Pinaceae species, in contrast, had low-density wood, allocate more resources to the formation of the central trunk rather than to branches and attained taller maximal heights, allowing them to grow rapidly in height and compete for light following disturbances; thus, contributing to their high light requirements. Wood density had a strong relationship with tree architecture, with dense-wooded species having smaller maximum height and wider crowns, probably because of cheaper expansion costs for producing biomechanically stable branches. Species from arid environments had shorter stems and shallower crowns for a given stem diameter, probably to reduce hydraulic path length and assure water transport. Wood density is an important correlate of variation in tree architecture between species and the two dominant families, with potentially large implications for their resource foraging strategies and successional dynamics.</style></abstract></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Gómez-Aparicio, LORENA</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Zavala, Miguel A.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Bonet, Francisco J.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Zamora, Regino</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Are pine plantations valid tools for restoring Mediterranean forests? An assessment along abiotic and biotic gradients</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">competition</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">environmental gradients</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Facilitation</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">management strategy</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Mediterranean forests</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">pine plantations</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Regeneration</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">seed dispersal</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">species diversity</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">stand density</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2009</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2009///</style></date></pub-dates></dates><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">19</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2124 - 2141</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">The ecological impacts of forest plantations are a focus of intense debate, from studies that consider plantations as ``biological deserts{''} to studies showing positive effects on plant diversity and dynamics. This lack of consensus might be influenced by the scarcity of studies that examine how the ecological characteristics of plantations vary along abiotic and biotic gradients. Here we conducted a large-scale assessment of plant regeneration and diversity in plantations of southern Spain. Tree seedling and sapling density, plant species richness, and Shannon's (H') diversity index were analyzed in 442 pine plantation plots covering a wide gradient of climatic conditions, stand density, and distance to natural forests that act as seed sources. Pronounced variation in regeneration and diversity was found in plantation understories along the gradients explored. Low-to mid-altitude plantations showed a diverse and abundant seedling bank dominated by Quercus ilex, whereas high-altitude plantations showed a virtually monospecific seeding bank of Pinus sylvestris. Regeneration was null in plantations with stand densities exceeding 1500 pines/ha. Moderate plantation densities (500-1000 pines/ha) promoted recruitment in comparison to low or null canopy cover, suggesting the existence of facilitative interactions. Quercus ilex recruitment diminished exponentially with distance to the nearest Q. ilex forest. Richness and H' index values showed a hump-shaped distribution along the altitudinal and radiation gradients and decreased monotonically along the stand density gradient. From a management perspective, different strategies will be necessary depending on where a plantation lies along the gradients explored. Active management will be required in high-density plantations with arrested succession and low diversity. Thinning could redirect plantations toward more natural densities where facilitation predominates. Passive management might be recommended for low-to moderate-density plantations with active successional dynamics (e. g., toward oak or pine-oak forests at low to mid altitudes). Enrichment planting will be required to overcome seed limitation, especially in plantations far from natural forests. We conclude that plantations should be perceived as dynamic systems where successional trajectories and diversity levels are determined by abiotic constraints, complex balances of competitive and facilitative interactions, the spatial configuration of native seed sources, and species life-history traits.</style></abstract><issue><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">8</style></issue><notes><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">The following values have no corresponding Zotero field:&lt;br/&gt;pub-location: 1990 M STREET NW, STE 700, WASHINGTON, DC 20036 USA&lt;br/&gt;publisher: ECOLOGICAL SOC AMER</style></notes></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Urbieta, Itziar R.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Pérez-Ramos, Ignacio M.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Zavala, Miguel A.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Marañón, Teodoro</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Kobe, Richard K.</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Soil water content and emergence time control seedling establishment in three co-occurring Mediterranean oak species</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Canadian Journal of Forest Research</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Mediterranean oak species</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Modelling</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">seed germination</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">seedling emergence</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">seedling survival (voyant)</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Soil water content</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2008</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2008///</style></date></pub-dates></dates><urls><web-urls><url><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">http://dx.doi.org/10.1139/X08-089</style></url></web-urls></urls><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">38</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2382 - 2393</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Tree species can differ in their responses to resource availability during the critical phase of establishment, which could influence forest dynamics. In Mediterranean forests, most of the attention has focused on the effects of shade and summer drought on seedling survival, but little is known about the effect of autumn to spring rains on earlier stages of recruitment. A sowing experiment was set up along natural light and water gradients with three co-occurring oak species (Quercus suber L. (cork oak), Quercus canariensis Willd. (Algerian oak), and Quercus pyrenaica Willd. (Pyrenean oak)) that show limited natural regeneration in southern Spain. Recruitment stages were monitored for 1 year. Models of seed germination, seedling emergence, and seedling survival as well as of overall recruitment patterns were developed as functions of light, soil moisture, and soil compaction. The influence of intraspecific variation in seed mass and emergence time were also tested. Excess soil water levels during the winter reduced germination and emergence and lengthened time to emergence (in waterlogged open areas), which in turn decreased seedling survival during the dry season. Seedlings from larger seeds were more likely to germinate and emerge. The results suggest that temporal and spatial variability of soil water content, mediated by emergence time and seed size, play a crucial role in the regeneration dynamics of Mediterranean oak forests.</style></abstract><issue><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">9</style></issue><notes><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">doi: 10.1139/X08-089doi: 10.1139/X08-089The following values have no corresponding Zotero field:&lt;br/&gt;publisher: NRC Research Press</style></notes></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Purves, Drew W.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Zavala, Miguel A.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Ogle, Kiona</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Prieto, Fernando</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Benayas, Jose M. Rey</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Environmental heterogeneity, bird-mediated directed dispersal, and oak woodland dynamics in Mediterranean Spain</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">ECOLOGICAL MONOGRAPHS</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">biogeography</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">climate change</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">climate envelope</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">corvids</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">dispersal limitation</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Garrulus</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Holm oak</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Iberian peninsular</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">incidence function</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">patch model</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">species migration</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">zoochory</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2007</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2007///</style></date></pub-dates></dates><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">77</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">77 - 97</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Vegetation dynamics in complex landscapes depend on interactions among environmental heterogeneity, disturbance, habitat fragmentation, and seed dispersal processes. We explore how these features combine to affect the regional abundances and distributions of three Quercus (oak) species in central Spain: Q. faginea (deciduous tree), Q. ilex (evergreen tree), and Q. coccifera (evergreen shrub). We develop and parameterize a stochastic patch occupancy model (SPOM) that, unlike previous SPOMs, includes environmentally driven variation in disturbance and establishment. Dispersal in the model is directed toward local (nearby) suitable habitat patches, following the observed seed-caching behavior of the European Jay. Model parameters were estimated using Bayesian methods and survey data from 12 047 plots. Model simulations were conducted to explore the importance of different dispersal modes (local directed, global directed, local random, global random). The SPOM with local directed dispersal gave a much better fit to the data and reproduced observed regional abundance, abundance-environment correlations, and spatial autocorrelation in abundance for all three species. Model simulations suggest that jay-mediated directed dispersal increases regional abundance and alters species-environment correlations. Local dispersal is estimated to reduce regional abundances, amplify species-environment correlations, and amplify spatial autocorrelation. Parameter estimates and model simulations reveal important species-specific differences in sensitivity to environmental perturbations and dispersal mode. The dominant species Q. ilex is estimated to be highly fecund, but on the edge of its climatic tolerance. Therefore Q. ilex gains little from directed dispersal, suffers little from local dispersal, and is relatively insensitive to changes in habitat cover or disturbance rate; but Q. ilex is highly sensitive to altered drought length. In contrast, the rarest species, Q. coccifera, is well adapted to the climate and soils but has low fecundity; thus, it is highly sensitive to changes in dispersal, habitat cover, and disturbance but insensitive to altered drought length. Finally, Q. faginea is estimated to be both at the edge of its climatic tolerance and to have low fecundity, making it sensitive to all perturbations. Apparently, co-occurring species can exhibit very different interactions among dispersal, environmental characteristics, and physiological tolerances, calling for increased attention to species-specific dynamics in determining regional vegetation responses to anthropogenic perturbations.</style></abstract><issue><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1</style></issue><notes><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">The following values have no corresponding Zotero field:&lt;br/&gt;pub-location: 1707 H ST NW, STE 400, WASHINGTON, DC 20006-3915 USA&lt;br/&gt;publisher: ECOLOGICAL SOC AMER</style></notes></record></records></xml>