<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><xml><records><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Henne, Paul D.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Elkin, Ché</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Colombaroli, Daniele</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Samartin, Stéphanie</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Bugmann, Harald</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Heiri, Oliver</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Tinner, Willy</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Impacts of changing climate and land use on vegetation dynamics in a Mediterranean ecosystem: insights from paleoecology and dynamic modeling</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Landscape Ecology</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Abies alba</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Chironomids</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Fire ecology</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Holocene</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Italy</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Landscape model</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">mediterranean forest</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Neolithic</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">pollen</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Quercus ilex</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2012</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2012///</style></date></pub-dates></dates><urls><web-urls><url><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">http://www.springerlink.com/index/10.1007/s10980-012-9782-8</style></url></web-urls></urls><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Forests near the Mediterranean coast have been shaped by millennia of human disturbance. Consequently, ecological studies relying on modern observations or historical records may have difﬁculty assessing natural vegetation dynamics under current and future climate. We combined a sedimentary pollen record from Lago di Massacciucoli, Tuscany, Italy with simulations from the LANDCLIM dynamic vegetation model to determine what vegetation preceded intense human disturbance, how past changes in vegetation relate to ﬁre and browsing, and the potential of an extinct vegetation type under present climate. We simulated vegetation dynamics near Lago di Massaciucoli for the last 7,000 years using a local chironomid-inferred temperature reconstruction with combinations of three ﬁre regimes (small infrequent, large infrequent, small frequent) and three browsing intensities (no browsing, light browsing, and moderate browsing), and compared model output to pollen data. Simulations with low disturbance support polleninferred evidence for a mixed forest dominated by Quercus ilex (a Mediterranean species) and Abies alba (a montane species). Whereas pollen data record the collapse of A. alba after 6000 cal yr BP, simulated populations expanded with declining summer temperatures during the late Holocene. Simulations with increased ﬁre and browsing are consistent with evidence for expansion by deciduous species after A. alba collapsed. According to our combined paleoenvironmental and modeling evidence, mixed Q. ilex and A. alba forests remain possible with current climate and limited disturbance, and provide a viable management objective for ecosystems near the Mediterranean coast and in regions that are expected to experience a mediterranean-type climate in the future.</style></abstract></record></records></xml>