<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><xml><records><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">GARCÍA-VALDÉS, Raúl</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Zavala, Miguel A.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Araújo, Miguel B.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Purves, Drew W.</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Chasing a moving target: projecting climate change-induced shifts in non-equilibrial tree species distributions</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Journal of Ecology</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Bayesian statistics</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Iberian forests</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">local colonization and extinction rates</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">MCMC</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">metapopulation model</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">plant population and community dynamics</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">plant–climate interactions</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">seed dispersal</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">species distribution models</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">stochastic patch occupancy models</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2013</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2013///</style></date></pub-dates></dates><urls><web-urls><url><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1365-2745.12049</style></url></web-urls></urls><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">n/a - n/a</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">* The geographic distributions of plant species show marked correlations with the current climate, suggesting that they are likely to shift if climate changes. However, before projecting any such shifts, it is important to establish whether distributions are at equilibrium with the current climate. If they are not, distributional shifts could occur even without climate change, making it difficult to tease apart climate-induced shifts from shifts occurring naturally without climate change. * We forecast the geographical distributions of the 10 most common trees occurring in the Iberian Peninsula using a new method that relaxes the species–climate equilibrium assumption implicit in most species distributions models. For each species, we developed a spatially explicit patch occupancy model (SPOM) with climate-dependent extinction rates and with colonization rates that depend on both climate and local seed dispersal. Bayesian methods were used to estimate the colonization, extinction and seed dispersal functions against observed colonization and extinction events recorded in repeat surveys of 46 596 forest plots in the Spanish Forest Inventories (1986–96 and 1997–2007). We then simulated distributional changes between the years 2000–2100. * Without climate change, 9 of the 10 species substantially increased in regional frequency. These increases occurred primarily within current ranges, although some species also expanded across their range edges. With climate change, one temperate conifer species and two sub-Mediterranean species would reduce their frequency of occurrence across the studied region, whereas temperate broad-leaved species were unaffected and Mediterranean species were either unaffected or increased their frequency of occurrence. * Synthesis. The analysis suggests that these species are substantially out of equilibrium, such that abundances and ranges would increase without climate change. Climate change may increase, decrease, stabilize or shift distributions, in a way that can only be understood by comparing predictions against baseline scenarios that account for these non-equilibrium range dynamics.</style></abstract></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Purves, Drew W.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Zavala, Miguel A.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Ogle, Kiona</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Prieto, Fernando</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Benayas, Jose M. Rey</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Environmental heterogeneity, bird-mediated directed dispersal, and oak woodland dynamics in Mediterranean Spain</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">ECOLOGICAL MONOGRAPHS</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">biogeography</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">climate change</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">climate envelope</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">corvids</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">dispersal limitation</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Garrulus</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Holm oak</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Iberian peninsular</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">incidence function</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">patch model</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">species migration</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">zoochory</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2007</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2007///</style></date></pub-dates></dates><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">77</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">77 - 97</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Vegetation dynamics in complex landscapes depend on interactions among environmental heterogeneity, disturbance, habitat fragmentation, and seed dispersal processes. We explore how these features combine to affect the regional abundances and distributions of three Quercus (oak) species in central Spain: Q. faginea (deciduous tree), Q. ilex (evergreen tree), and Q. coccifera (evergreen shrub). We develop and parameterize a stochastic patch occupancy model (SPOM) that, unlike previous SPOMs, includes environmentally driven variation in disturbance and establishment. Dispersal in the model is directed toward local (nearby) suitable habitat patches, following the observed seed-caching behavior of the European Jay. Model parameters were estimated using Bayesian methods and survey data from 12 047 plots. Model simulations were conducted to explore the importance of different dispersal modes (local directed, global directed, local random, global random). The SPOM with local directed dispersal gave a much better fit to the data and reproduced observed regional abundance, abundance-environment correlations, and spatial autocorrelation in abundance for all three species. Model simulations suggest that jay-mediated directed dispersal increases regional abundance and alters species-environment correlations. Local dispersal is estimated to reduce regional abundances, amplify species-environment correlations, and amplify spatial autocorrelation. Parameter estimates and model simulations reveal important species-specific differences in sensitivity to environmental perturbations and dispersal mode. The dominant species Q. ilex is estimated to be highly fecund, but on the edge of its climatic tolerance. Therefore Q. ilex gains little from directed dispersal, suffers little from local dispersal, and is relatively insensitive to changes in habitat cover or disturbance rate; but Q. ilex is highly sensitive to altered drought length. In contrast, the rarest species, Q. coccifera, is well adapted to the climate and soils but has low fecundity; thus, it is highly sensitive to changes in dispersal, habitat cover, and disturbance but insensitive to altered drought length. Finally, Q. faginea is estimated to be both at the edge of its climatic tolerance and to have low fecundity, making it sensitive to all perturbations. Apparently, co-occurring species can exhibit very different interactions among dispersal, environmental characteristics, and physiological tolerances, calling for increased attention to species-specific dynamics in determining regional vegetation responses to anthropogenic perturbations.</style></abstract><issue><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1</style></issue><notes><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">The following values have no corresponding Zotero field:&lt;br/&gt;pub-location: 1707 H ST NW, STE 400, WASHINGTON, DC 20006-3915 USA&lt;br/&gt;publisher: ECOLOGICAL SOC AMER</style></notes></record></records></xml>