<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><xml><records><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Cheaib, Alissar</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Badeau, Vincent</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Boe, Julien</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Chuine, Isabelle</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Delire, Christine</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Dufrêne, Eric</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">François, Christophe</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">GRITTI, EMMANUEL S</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Legay, Myriam</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Pagé, Christian</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Thuiller, Wilfried</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Viovy, Nicolas</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Leadley, Paul</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Climate change impacts on tree ranges: model intercomparison facilitates understanding and quantification of uncertainty</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Ecology Letters</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">climate change</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Fagus sylvatica</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">France</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Pinus sylvestris</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Quercus ilex</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Quercus petraea</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Quercus robur</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">species range</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">vegetation model intercomparison</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2012</style></year></dates><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Blackwell Publishing Ltd</style></publisher><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">15</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">533-544</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Ecology Letters (2012) Abstract Model-based projections of shifts in tree species range due to climate change are becoming an important decision support tool for forest management. However, poorly evaluated sources of uncertainty require more scrutiny before relying heavily on models for decision-making. We evaluated uncertainty arising from differences in model formulations of tree response to climate change based on a rigorous intercomparison of projections of tree distributions in France. We compared eight models ranging from niche-based to process-based models. On average, models project large range contractions of temperate tree species in lowlands due to climate change. There was substantial disagreement between models for temperate broadleaf deciduous tree species, but differences in the capacity of models to account for rising CO2 impacts explained much of the disagreement. There was good quantitative agreement among models concerning the range contractions for Scots pine. For the dominant Mediterranean tree species, Holm oak, all models foresee substantial range expansion.</style></abstract></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Thuiller, Wilfried</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Vayreda, Jordi</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Pino, Joan</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Sabaté, Santi</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Lavorel, Sandra</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Gracia, Carles</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Large-scale environmental correlates of forest tree distributions in Catalonia (NE Spain)</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Global Ecology and Biogeography</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">chorology</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">classification tree analysis</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">environmental gradients</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">forest trees</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">potential distribution maps</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">realized niche</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Spain</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2003</style></year></dates><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">12</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">313-325</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Aim To explore the environmental correlates of tree species distributions in Catalonia according to the chorological status of the species. Location The study area is the region of Catalonia, in northeastern Spain. Methods We used presence-absence data for 24 species, sampled in random plots distributed throughout forests of Catalonia. A climate model for the Catalonia region provided environmental variables. We used classiﬁcation tree analysis to explore the environmental correlates of the realized niches of tree species. The predictive accuracy of the models was assessed using the ROC curve approach. Potential distribution maps of tree species were generated for the whole Catalonia region. Results Models were ranked from low to high accuracy for the 24 species. Differences in accuracy among species were related to the chorological status of species. Zonal species, or species at the core of their range (Mediterranean and SubMediterranean species), were generally well predicted, while extrazonal species, or species at the edge of their range, were predicted only moderately well. Mediterranean species distributions showed good correlations with extreme temperatures and annual precipitation. Main conclusions The above trends conﬁrmed the difﬁculty of identifying the realized niche of species at the edges of their ranges. In contrast, Mediterranean and Sub-Mediterranean species, which were at the core of their range, were well-predicted, conﬁrming the importance of extremes of temperature and annual precipitation as effective surrogates for variables having more direct physiological roles in limiting the ability of plants to survive and grow. Maps of potential tree distributions allowed us to deﬁne suitable habitats and to highlight areas where species have been planted outside their natural distribution.</style></abstract></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Thuiller, Wilfried</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Vayreda, Jordi</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Pino, Joan</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Sabaté, Santi</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Lavorel, Sandra</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Gracia, Carles</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Large-scale environmental correlates of forest tree distributions in Catalonia (NE Spain)</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Global Ecology and Biogeography</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">chorology</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">classification tree analysis</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">environmental gradients</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">forest trees</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">potential distribution maps</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">realized niche</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Spain</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2003</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2003///</style></date></pub-dates></dates><urls><web-urls><url><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">http://doi.wiley.com/10.1046/j.1466-822X.2003.00033.x</style></url></web-urls></urls><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">12</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">313 - 325</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Aim To explore the environmental correlates of tree species distributions in Catalonia according to the chorological status of the species. Location The study area is the region of Catalonia, in northeastern Spain. Methods We used presence-absence data for 24 species, sampled in random plots distributed throughout forests of Catalonia. A climate model for the Catalonia region provided environmental variables. We used classiﬁcation tree analysis to explore the environmental correlates of the realized niches of tree species. The predictive accuracy of the models was assessed using the ROC curve approach. Potential distribution maps of tree species were generated for the whole Catalonia region. Results Models were ranked from low to high accuracy for the 24 species. Differences in accuracy among species were related to the chorological status of species. Zonal species, or species at the core of their range (Mediterranean and SubMediterranean species), were generally well predicted, while extrazonal species, or species at the edge of their range, were predicted only moderately well. Mediterranean species distributions showed good correlations with extreme temperatures and annual precipitation. Main conclusions The above trends conﬁrmed the difﬁculty of identifying the realized niche of species at the edges of their ranges. In contrast, Mediterranean and Sub-Mediterranean species, which were at the core of their range, were well-predicted, conﬁrming the importance of extremes of temperature and annual precipitation as effective surrogates for variables having more direct physiological roles in limiting the ability of plants to survive and grow. Maps of potential tree distributions allowed us to deﬁne suitable habitats and to highlight areas where species have been planted outside their natural distribution.</style></abstract><issue><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">4</style></issue></record></records></xml>