<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><xml><records><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Lloret, F.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Martínez-Vilalta, J.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Serra-Diaz, J. M.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Ninyerola, M.</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Relationship between projected changes in future climatic suitability and demographic and functional traits of forest tree species in Spain</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Climatic Change</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">climatic niche</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">demographic rates</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">funtional traits</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">future climate</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Spain</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">woody species</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2013</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2013///</style></date></pub-dates></dates><urls><web-urls><url><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0820-6</style></url></web-urls></urls><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">120</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">449 - 462</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">The response of plant species to future climate conditions is probably dependent on their ecological characteristics, including climatic niche, demographic rates and functional traits. Using forest inventory data from 27 dominant woody species in Spanish forests, we explore the relationships between species characteristics and projected changes in their average climatic suitability (occurrence of suitable climatic conditions for a species in a given territory) obtained by empirical niche-based models, under a business-as-usual climate change scenario (A1, HadCM3, 2001–2100). We hypothesize that most species will suffer a decline in climatic suitability, with a less severe for species (i) currently living in more arid climates or exhibiting a broader current climatic niche; (ii) with higher current growth rates; (iii) with functional traits related to resistance to water deficits. The analysis confirm our hypothesis since apart from a few Mediterranean species, most species decrease their climatic suitability in the region under future climate, characterized by increased aridity. Also, species living in warmer locations or under a wider range of climatic conditions tend to experience less decrease in climatic suitability. As hypothesized, a positive relationship was detected between current relative growth rates and increase in future climatic suitability. Nevertheless, current tree mortality did not correlate with changes in future climatic suitability. In contrast with our hypothesis, functional traits did not show a clear relationship with changes in climate suitability; instead species often presented idiosyncratic responses that, in some cases, could reflect past management. These results suggest that the extrapolation of species performance to future climatic scenarios based on current patterns of dominance is constrained by factors other than species autoecology, particularly human activity.</style></abstract><issue><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1-2</style></issue><notes><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">APSAPSThe following values have no corresponding Zotero field:&lt;br/&gt;publisher: Springer Netherlands</style></notes></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Galiano, L.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Martínez-Vilalta, J.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Lloret, F.</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Drought-Induced Multifactor Decline of Scots Pine in the Pyrenees and Potential Vegetation Change by the Expansion of Co-occurring Oak Species</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Ecosystems</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">canopy defoliation</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Drought</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">mistletoe</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">mortality</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">pinus sylvestris l</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Recruitment</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">scots pine</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.)</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">soil properties</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Stand Structure</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">summer</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">summer water availability</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Water availability</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2010</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2010///</style></date></pub-dates></dates><urls><web-urls><url><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10021-010-9368-8http://www.springerlink.com/index/10.1007/s10021-010-9368-8</style></url></web-urls></urls><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">13</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">978 - 991</style></pages><isbn><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1002101093</style></isbn><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Episodes of drought-induced tree dieback have been recently observed in many forest areas of the world, particularly at the dry edge of species distributions. Under climate change, those effects could signal potential vegetation shifts occurring over large geographical areas, with major impacts on ecosystem form and function. In this article, we studied the effect of a single drought episode, which occurred in summer 2005, on a Scots pine population in central Pyrenees (NE Spain). Our main objective was to study the environmental correlates of forest decline and vegetation change at the plot level. General and generalized linear models were used to study the relationship between canopy defoliation, mortality and recruitment, and plot characteristics. A droughtdriven multifactor dieback was observed in the study forest. Defoliation and mortality were associated with the local level of drought stress estimated at each plot. In addition, stand structure, soil properties, and mistletoe infection were also associated with the observed pattern of defoliation, presumably acting as long-term predisposing factors. Recruitment of Scots pine was low in all plots. In contrast, we observed abundant recruitment of other tree species, mostlyQuercus ilexand Q. humilis, particularly in plots where Scots pine showed high defoliation and mortality. These results suggest that an altitudinal upwards migration of Quercusspecies, mediated by the dieback of the currently dominant species, may take place in the studied slopes. Many rear-edge populations of Scots pine sheltered in the mountain environments of the Iberian Peninsula could be at risk under future climate scenarios.</style></abstract><issue><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">7</style></issue></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Martínez-Vilalta, J.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Piñol, J.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Beven, K.</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">A hydraulic model to predict drought-induced mortality in woody plants: an application to climate change in the Mediterranean</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Ecological Modelling</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">climate change</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">drought-induced mortality</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Mediterranean ecosystems</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Modelling</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">phillyrea latifolia</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Quercus ilex</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">water transport</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2002</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2002///</style></date></pub-dates></dates><urls><web-urls><url><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030438000200025X</style></url></web-urls></urls><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">155</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">127 - 147</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">The potential effects of climate change on vegetation are of increasing concern. In the Mediterranean region, the dominant impact of climate change is expected to be through the modiﬁcation of water balance. In this paper we present a model developed to predict drought-induced mortality of woody plants under different climatic scenarios. The model is physiologically-based and simulates water transport within individual woody plants, which can be isolated or competing for a common water resource. The model assumes that plant mortality is controlled by the carbon balance: when the plant is unable to transport water to the leaves it ceases to acquire carbon and, if this situation lasts long enough, it can no longer survive. In the particular application that we report in this study, two evergreen species are compared, Quercus ilex and Phillyrea latifolia, which were very differently affected by the acute drought that occurred in E Spain in summer 1994. While in some Q. ilex populations the amount of individuals that dried completely was up to 80%, P. latifolia showed almost no damage. During the years 1999 and 2000, canopy transpiration was monitored using sap-ﬂow sensors in individuals of these two species in a Holm-oak forest from NE Spain. A Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) approach was used to calibrate the model against sap-ﬂow measurements. The only difference between species that was introduced ‘a priori’ was that Q. ilex was more vulnerable to xylem embolism than P. latifolia (based on our own measurements in the study area). During the calibration process the information provided by the measured sap ﬂows was used to retain the more likely parameter sets for each species. These parameter sets were used in all the following simulations. The model was able to accurately simulate transpiration dynamics of the two species in the study area. When the meteorological conditions of summer 1994 were introduced, the model outputs also reproduced the differential impact that drought had on the two species studied. In the simulations under climate change two factors were explored: the increase in mean temperature (+1.5, +3 and +4.5 °C) through its effect on ET , and the duration of summer drought. Under any of the scenarios, mortalities were much higher for Q. ilex: while this species was predicted to survive with less than 5% mortality droughts of up to 84–94 days, the mortality of P. latifolia reached 5% between days 133 and 150. For droughts longer than 3 months, which is approximately the current drought duration in the study area for dry years, the mortality of Q. ilex increased sharply. These results are discussed in relation to the possible long-term impacts of climate change on Q. ilex-dominated forests</style></abstract></record></records></xml>