<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><xml><records><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Attorre, Fabio</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Alfò, Marco</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">De Sanctis, Michele</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Francesconi, Fabio</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Valenti, Roberto</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Vitale, Marcello</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Bruno, Franco</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Evaluating the effects of climate change on tree species abundance and distribution in the Italian peninsula</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Applied Vegetation Science</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">generalized additive model</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">geostatistical</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">geostatistical methods</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">italian peninsula</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">methods</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">random forest</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">regression tree analysis</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2011</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2011///</style></date></pub-dates></dates><urls><web-urls><url><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">http://doi.wiley.com/10.1111/j.1654-109X.2010.01114.x</style></url></web-urls></urls><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">14</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">242 - 255</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Question: What is the effect of climate change on tree species abundance and distribution in the Italian peninsula? Location: Italian peninsula. Methods: Regression tree analysis, Random Forest, generalized additive model and geostatistical methods were compared to identify the best model for quantifying the effect of climate change on tree species distribution and abundance. Future potential species distribution, richness, local colonization, local extinction and species turnover were modelled according to two scenarios (A2 and B1) for 2050 and 2080. Results: Robust Random Forest proved to be the best statistical model to predict the potential distribution of tree species abundance. Climate change could lead to a shift in tree species distribution towards higher altitudes and a reduction of forest cover. Pinus sylvestris and Tilia cordata may be considered at risk of local extinction, while the other species could ﬁnd potential suitable areas at the cost of a rearrangement of forest community composition and increasing competition. Conclusions: Geographical and topographical regional characteristics can have a noticeable inﬂuence on the impact of predicted climate change on forest ecosystems within the Mediterranean basin. It would be highly beneﬁcial to create a standardized and harmonized European forest inventory in order to evaluate, at high resolution, the effect of climate change on forest ecosystems, identify regional differences and develop speciﬁc adaptive management strategies and plans.</style></abstract><issue><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2</style></issue></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Benito Garzón, Marta</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Sánchez de Dios, Rut</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Sainz Ollero, Helios</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Effects of climate change on the distribution of Iberian tree species</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Applied Vegetation Science</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1990</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2002</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">amaral franco</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">avishai</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">for quercus pubescens</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Forest distributions</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">govaerts</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">iberian peninsula</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">learning</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">machine</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Machine learning</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">nomenclature</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">random forest</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2008</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2008///</style></date></pub-dates></dates><urls><web-urls><url><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">http://doi.wiley.com/10.3170/2008-7-18348http://dx.doi.org/10.3170/2008-7-18348</style></url></web-urls></urls><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">11</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">169 - 178</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Question: Will the predicted climate changes affect species distribution in the Iberian Peninsula? Location: Iberian Peninsula (Spain and Portugal). Methods: We modelled current and future tree distributions as a function of climate, using a computational framework that made use of one machine learning technique, the random forest (RF) algorithm. This algorithm provided good predictions of the current distribution of each species, as shown by the area under the corresponding receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves. Species turnover, richness and the change in distributions over time to 2080 under four Intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) scenarios were calculated using the species map outputs. Results and Conclusions: The results show a notable reduction in the potential distribution of the studied species under all the IPCC scenarios, particularly so for mountain conifer species such as Pinus sylvestris, P. uncinata and Abies alba. Temperate species, especially Fagus sylvatica and Quercus petraea, were also predicted to suffer a reduction in their range; also sub-mediterranean species, especially Q. pyrenaica, were predicted to undergo notable decline. In contrast, typically Mediterranean species appeared to be generally more capable of migration, and are therefore likely to be less affected.</style></abstract><issue><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2</style></issue><notes><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">The following values have no corresponding Zotero field:&lt;br/&gt;publisher: Blackwell Publishing Ltd</style></notes></record></records></xml>