Estimating species-based community integrity under global warming, with special reference to the western Mediterranean region

Climate-based estimates of the fitness of the main structural elementsof several western Mediterranean plant communities were used to estimate
potential community integrity and its consequent vulnerability under a
global-change scenario involving warming but no net drying. Results for
a simple Quercus ilex community suggest expansion northward and inland
under warming but with significant loss of area currently covered by the
community. The data for estimating such changes in potential community
integrity and areal coverage can be readily obtained from climatic
envelope models. Mapping can be done by interpolation or by pixel-based
GIS methods.