Start of the dry season as a main determinant of inter-annual Mediterranean forest production variations

Recent investigations have highlighted the dependence of Mediterranean forest production on spring rainfall. The current work introduces the concept of the start of the dry season (SDS) and performs a three-step analysis to determine the effect of SDS on Mediterranean forest production. Seven forest zones of Tuscany (Central Italy), which present differently pronounced Mediterranean features, are considered. First, a statistical analysis investigates the influence of spring water budget on forest Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) inter-annual variations during July–August. The analysis is then extended to assess the impact of inter-annual SDS variability on forest gross primary production (GPP) simulated by a NDVI driven parametric model, modified C-Fix. These simulations lead to rank the considered forest types according to the relevance of SDS in regulating inter-annual GPP variations. The application of similar statistical analyses to detrended tree ring-width time series of typical Tuscany forests confirms the existence of an eco-climatic gradient in the functional relevance of SDS. The influence of SDS on tree growth is attenuated moving from Mediterranean arid to temperate humid environments. These findings are examined and interpreted from an eco-physiological viewpoint taking into consideration the peculiarity of Mediterranean forest ecosystems. Next, relevant implications are discussed in view of the possible consequences of ongoing climate change.