<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><xml><records><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">GARCÍA-VALDÉS, Raúl</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Zavala, Miguel A.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Araújo, Miguel B.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Purves, Drew W.</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Chasing a moving target: projecting climate change-induced shifts in non-equilibrial tree species distributions</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Journal of Ecology</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Bayesian statistics</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Iberian forests</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">local colonization and extinction rates</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">MCMC</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">metapopulation model</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">plant population and community dynamics</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">plant–climate interactions</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">seed dispersal</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">species distribution models</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">stochastic patch occupancy models</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2013</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2013///</style></date></pub-dates></dates><urls><web-urls><url><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1365-2745.12049</style></url></web-urls></urls><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">n/a - n/a</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">* The geographic distributions of plant species show marked correlations with the current climate, suggesting that they are likely to shift if climate changes. However, before projecting any such shifts, it is important to establish whether distributions are at equilibrium with the current climate. If they are not, distributional shifts could occur even without climate change, making it difficult to tease apart climate-induced shifts from shifts occurring naturally without climate change. * We forecast the geographical distributions of the 10 most common trees occurring in the Iberian Peninsula using a new method that relaxes the species–climate equilibrium assumption implicit in most species distributions models. For each species, we developed a spatially explicit patch occupancy model (SPOM) with climate-dependent extinction rates and with colonization rates that depend on both climate and local seed dispersal. Bayesian methods were used to estimate the colonization, extinction and seed dispersal functions against observed colonization and extinction events recorded in repeat surveys of 46 596 forest plots in the Spanish Forest Inventories (1986–96 and 1997–2007). We then simulated distributional changes between the years 2000–2100. * Without climate change, 9 of the 10 species substantially increased in regional frequency. These increases occurred primarily within current ranges, although some species also expanded across their range edges. With climate change, one temperate conifer species and two sub-Mediterranean species would reduce their frequency of occurrence across the studied region, whereas temperate broad-leaved species were unaffected and Mediterranean species were either unaffected or increased their frequency of occurrence. * Synthesis. The analysis suggests that these species are substantially out of equilibrium, such that abundances and ranges would increase without climate change. Climate change may increase, decrease, stabilize or shift distributions, in a way that can only be understood by comparing predictions against baseline scenarios that account for these non-equilibrium range dynamics.</style></abstract></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Gómez-Aparicio, LORENA</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Zavala, Miguel A.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Bonet, Francisco J.</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Zamora, Regino</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Are pine plantations valid tools for restoring Mediterranean forests? An assessment along abiotic and biotic gradients</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">competition</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">environmental gradients</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Facilitation</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">management strategy</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Mediterranean forests</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">pine plantations</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Regeneration</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">seed dispersal</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">species diversity</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">stand density</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2009</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2009///</style></date></pub-dates></dates><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">19</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2124 - 2141</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">The ecological impacts of forest plantations are a focus of intense debate, from studies that consider plantations as ``biological deserts{''} to studies showing positive effects on plant diversity and dynamics. This lack of consensus might be influenced by the scarcity of studies that examine how the ecological characteristics of plantations vary along abiotic and biotic gradients. Here we conducted a large-scale assessment of plant regeneration and diversity in plantations of southern Spain. Tree seedling and sapling density, plant species richness, and Shannon's (H') diversity index were analyzed in 442 pine plantation plots covering a wide gradient of climatic conditions, stand density, and distance to natural forests that act as seed sources. Pronounced variation in regeneration and diversity was found in plantation understories along the gradients explored. Low-to mid-altitude plantations showed a diverse and abundant seedling bank dominated by Quercus ilex, whereas high-altitude plantations showed a virtually monospecific seeding bank of Pinus sylvestris. Regeneration was null in plantations with stand densities exceeding 1500 pines/ha. Moderate plantation densities (500-1000 pines/ha) promoted recruitment in comparison to low or null canopy cover, suggesting the existence of facilitative interactions. Quercus ilex recruitment diminished exponentially with distance to the nearest Q. ilex forest. Richness and H' index values showed a hump-shaped distribution along the altitudinal and radiation gradients and decreased monotonically along the stand density gradient. From a management perspective, different strategies will be necessary depending on where a plantation lies along the gradients explored. Active management will be required in high-density plantations with arrested succession and low diversity. Thinning could redirect plantations toward more natural densities where facilitation predominates. Passive management might be recommended for low-to moderate-density plantations with active successional dynamics (e. g., toward oak or pine-oak forests at low to mid altitudes). Enrichment planting will be required to overcome seed limitation, especially in plantations far from natural forests. We conclude that plantations should be perceived as dynamic systems where successional trajectories and diversity levels are determined by abiotic constraints, complex balances of competitive and facilitative interactions, the spatial configuration of native seed sources, and species life-history traits.</style></abstract><issue><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">8</style></issue><notes><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">The following values have no corresponding Zotero field:&lt;br/&gt;pub-location: 1990 M STREET NW, STE 700, WASHINGTON, DC 20036 USA&lt;br/&gt;publisher: ECOLOGICAL SOC AMER</style></notes></record></records></xml>