<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><xml><records><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">KEENAN, Trevor</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Maria Serra, JOSEP</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Lloret, Francisco</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Ninyerola, Miquel</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">SABATE, Santiago</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Predicting the future of forests in the Mediterranean under climate change, with niche- and process-based models: CO2 matters!</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Global Change Biology</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">6 may 2010</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">april 2010 and accepted</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">BIOMOD</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">co 2 fertilization</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">CO2 fertilization</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Drought</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">gotilwa 1</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">GOTILWA+</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">niche-based models</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Pinus halepensis</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Pinus sylvestris</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Quercus ilex</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">received 19 january 2010</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">revised version received 27</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Species distribution</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2011</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2011///</style></date></pub-dates></dates><urls><web-urls><url><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2010.02254.xhttp://doi.wiley.com/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2010.02254.x</style></url></web-urls></urls><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">17</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">565 - 579</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Assessing the potential future of current forest stands is a key to design conservation strategies and understanding potential future impacts to ecosystem service supplies. This is particularly true in the Mediterranean basin, where important future climatic changes are expected. Here, we assess and compare two commonly used modeling approaches (niche- and process-based models) to project the future of current stands of three forest species with contrasting distributions, using regionalized climate for continental Spain. Results highlight variability in model ability to estimate current distributions, and the inherent large uncertainty involved in making projections into the future. CO2 fertilization through projected increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations is shown to increase forest productivity in the mechanistic process-based model (despite increased drought stress) by up to three times that of the non-CO2 fertilization scenario by the period 2050–2080, which is in stark contrast to projections of reduced habitat suitability from the niche-based models by the same period. This highlights the importance of introducing aspects of plant biogeochemistry into current niche-based models for a realistic projection of future species distributions. We conclude that the future of current Mediterranean forest stands is highly uncertain and suggest that a new synergy between niche- and process-based models is urgently needed in order to improve our predictive ability.</style></abstract><issue><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1</style></issue><notes><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">The following values have no corresponding Zotero field:&lt;br/&gt;publisher: Blackwell Publishing Ltd</style></notes></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">DAVID, J. F.</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">SEASONAL ABUNDANCE OF MILLIPEDES IN A MEDITERRANEAN OAK FOREST (SOUTHERN FRANCE)</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">ISRAEL JOURNAL OF ZOOLOGY</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Bioclimatic limit</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Elevation gradient</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Oak trees</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Regeneration</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Shrub encroachment</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Species distribution</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1995</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1995///</style></date></pub-dates></dates><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">41</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">23 - 31</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">The millipede community of a helm oak forest (Quercus ilex) in southern France was sampled seasonally for 2 yr, at two depths in the forest floor. Despite the strong seasonality of climatic conditions, both recruitment periods and vertical displacements in the soil change markedly according to species; contrasting examples are provided by Glomeris marginata, which breeds in summer and burrows in winter, and by Opisthocheiron elegans, which behaves the opposite way. At the community level, biomass changes significantly between a spring minimum and an autumn maximum. Such a pattern results from the high abundance of G. marginata, a drought-resisting species which grows and reproduces during summer but experiences substantial winter mortality. The seasonal pattern is different in number of individuals due to the minute litter-dweller Polyxenus lagurus, which has a low population density in early autumn. The biomass of macrosaprophagous millipedes on the site (annual mean of 10.5 g live weight m(-2); autumn peak of 14.6 g live weight m(-2)) is much higher than that recorded further north in Europe, and its significance for litter consumption in Mediterranean forest is discussed.</style></abstract><issue><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1</style></issue><notes><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">The following values have no corresponding Zotero field:&lt;br/&gt;pub-location: PO BOX 50257, JERUSALEM 91502, ISRAEL&lt;br/&gt;publisher: LASER PAGES PUBL LTD</style></notes></record></records></xml>