A landscape analysis of land cover change in the Municipality of Rome (Italy): Spatio-temporal characteristics and ecological implications of land cover transitions from 1954 to 2001

This paper presents a landscape analysis of land cover change in the Municipality of Rome from 1954 to 2001. The overall objective of the analysis is to characterise the temporal and spatial pattern of change and to explore its potential ecological impact. We used three original land cover layers and a set of landscape metrics to describe variations in composition and pattern of land cover types. We then built change trajectories for patches derived from the spatial intersection of land cover data. These trajectories were ecologically assessed using expert judgement and indicators of naturalness such as deviation from potential natural vegetation. The results revealed that approximately 62% of the study area maintained the same land cover type from 1954 to 2001 as a result of composition continuity at the patch level. Urbanisation was by far the most important change process and the main cause of fragmentation of agricultural land and loss of coastal habitats, which imply possible negative effects for biodiversity and ecological processes. However, the star-shaped pattern of urbanisation favoured natural vegetation dynamics, marked persistence of woodlands, and significant stability of agricultural land in peripheral areas, with positive effects in terms of ecological connectivity and vegetation recovery potential. Despite the general nature of land cover data, the spatially explicit ecological assessment of transitions provides a reference layer that can effectively address territorial policies towards urban sustainability and that helps stratification for areas requiring direct investigation of impacts