Estimating species-based community integrity under global warming, with special reference to the western Mediterranean region

Climate-based estimates of the fitness of the main structural elementsof several western Mediterranean plant communities were used to estimatepotential community integrity and its consequent vulnerability under aglobal-change scenario involving warming but no net drying. Results fora simple Quercus ilex community suggest expansion northward and inlandunder warming but with significant loss of area currently covered by thecommunity. The data for estimating such changes in potential communityintegrity and areal coverage can be readily obtained from climaticenvelope models. Mapping can be done by interpolation or by pixel-basedGIS methods.