CLIMATE CHANGE , LAND DEGRADATION , AND DESERTIFICATION IN THE MEDITERRANEAN ENVIRONMENT

Until the early seventies land degradation and desertification were not considered a major issue in most Mediterranean regions. Traditional agricultural systems were believed to be able to keep those processes in check. Thus low priority was assigned to research programmes and projects on soil erosion and conservation, preference being given to the impact of farm machinery on soil structure and compaction along with the role of organic matter in the soil. In the eighties and early nineties the agricultural practices introduced in sloping land under cultivation in the Mediterranean in previous decades were identified as a major contributor to soil degradation. The unprecedented efforts to increase crop yields and maximize profit, made possible by the technological revolution in agriculture, had triggered in the agricultural ecosystem the onset of soil degradation due to hydrological phenomena that proved detrimental both to soil fertility and to the landscape causing devastating and permanent damage. In addition, it was recognized that research activities were too fragmentary to be able to cope with the demands of implementing sound soil conservation measures. The Mediterranean climate is characterised by hot dry summers and mild wet winters. The region frequently suffers from years of scant rainfall and many areas are afflicted by severe drought. The UK Hadley Centre's global climate model has been run on a monthly basis for the Mediterranean countries to predict the percent variation in rainfall and temperature with respect to mean monthly values. Scenarios developed using the model show that for the wet season (October-March), by the year 2050 rainfall could increase in central and eastern Spain, northern France, northern Italy and the Alps by up to 15%, against a decrease of about 10% to 15% in the southern Mediterranean. For the same period, the temperature in the northern Mediterranean is predicted to increase by 1.25° to 2.25°C, compared to an increase of between 1.5° and 2.5°C in the southern Mediterranean. The projections also show that for the dry season (April to September), by the year 2050 rainfall is likely to decrease over much of the Basin. Decreased precipitation is predicted to be accompanied by a rise in temperature of between 1.5 and 2.75°C in the northern regions and 1.75° and 3.0°C in the southern Mediterranean. Reduced precipitation during the summer has a major impact on irrigation and tourism, which both increase the pressure on water supplies during the dry period. To combat these problems, the European Community (EC), in collaboration with other international organizations, has funded various programmes and projects for mitigating drought and assessing and preventing land degradation and desertification. In this context, the paper describes the main features and characteristics of some of these programmes and projects and proposes new approaches to environmental policies, in order to: • • • • • assess, forecast and mitigate adverse impacts of drought; better understand soil erosion, land degradation and desertification processes; identify preventive, protective and remedial measures; address quantity and quality of natural resources in an integrated context; support innovation and participatory strategies. The importance and role of institutional strengthening, sound financial and managerial frameworks, availability of human resources involved, research thrust, technology transfer and networking improvement are also highlighted.